Democratic Party/2020 Election Thread

Well if he loses say Florida then he needs to hold all of the other major swing states. Some scenarios he can afford two loses if holding say Florida but certain states like Michigan I would already deduct from his 306 because it's fairly obvious he ain't holding that both the polls, the 2018 results and Bidens performance in the primaries show us that.
Polls were more than a bit off last time, combine that with the lag from the ballots being counted and I think you'll have a lot of states that Trump will try and claim on the night that he probably ends up losing widely. I am also banking on some further level of fiddling with results/votes.
 

CJRK

The horse fella
Polls were more than a bit off last time, combine that with the lag from the ballots being counted and I think you'll have a lot of states that Trump will try and claim on the night that he probably ends up losing widely. I am also banking on some further level of fiddling with results/votes.
Polls isn't what I am talking about. Polls didn't give the Dems gains in states like Michigan in 2018. Actual results did. Polls again didn't give Biden strong performance in the primaries showing that he is clearly strong in a way Hilary wasn't amongst the Democratic base. Actual results did.

I see this arguement made mostly by people who support Trump as some sign of hope he may pull it off again because the polls were so wrong in 2016. Suburban votes turned against Trump in 2018 and I don't see any indication that they will revert back which is what will ultimately decide the election as the cities will go Dems and rural will vote for the Republicans.
 
Well if he loses say Florida then he needs to hold all of the other major swing states. Some scenarios he can afford two loses if holding say Florida but certain states like Michigan I would already deduct from his 306 because it's fairly obvious he ain't holding that both the polls, the 2018 results and Bidens performance in the primaries show us that.
I wish I shared your confidence but the silent Republicans are a very real phenomenon. There are a lot of dyed in the wool Republicans out here that know Trump is an absolute mongoloid but would vote Myra Hindlay is she was the Republican candidate. They just wouldn't say anything about it.
 
Polls isn't what I am talking about. Polls didn't give the Dems gains in states like Michigan in 2018. Actual results did. Polls again didn't give Biden strong performance in the primaries showing that he is clearly strong in a way Hilary wasn't amongst the Democratic base. Actual results did.

I see this arguement made mostly by people who support Trump as some sign of hope he may pull it off again because the polls were so wrong in 2016. Suburban votes turned against Trump in 2018 and I don't see any indication that they will revert back which is what will ultimately decide the election as the cities will go Dems and rural will vote for the Republicans.
Again, incumbents losing Midterms only to win the General is fairly common. I'm pretty sure (don't quote here) that even Obama took a bad beat in the midterms before winning 4 more years.
 

CJRK

The horse fella
Again, incumbents losing Midterms only to win the General is fairly common. I'm pretty sure (don't quote here) that even Obama took a bad beat in the midterms before winning 4 more years.
That's going on the assumption mate that everything isn't tribal as fuck. The vote that lost the Republicans the election in 2018 was the abandonment of the Republican vote in the suburbs. I actually think that vote was lost because people were sick of the vitriol they had come to see in politics and rightly or wrongly blamed Trump for that. That if anything is going to be worse come November when you add another two years on top of that.

Break it down for me with states you think Trump will hold and why?
 

CJRK

The horse fella
I wish I shared your confidence but the silent Republicans are a very real phenomenon. There are a lot of dyed in the wool Republicans out here that know Trump is an absolute mongoloid but would vote Myra Hindlay is she was the Republican candidate. They just wouldn't say anything about it.
Yeah they are not the people going to decide the election any more than the pink haired vegan is going to decide it in favour of the Democrats.
 
That's going on the assumption mate that everything isn't tribal as fuck. The vote that lost the Republicans the election in 2018 was the abandonment of the Republican vote in the suburbs. I actually think that vote was lost because people were sick of the vitriol they had come to see in politics and rightly or wrongly blamed Trump for that. That if anything is going to be worse come November when you add another two years on top of that.

Break it down for me with states you think Trump will hold and why?
Nah, I don't think he wins. I hope to fuck he doesn't and I simply can't see how he's added a single vote to his count over 4 years...but I've also learned not to try rationalizing stupid.
 

CJRK

The horse fella
They're the people who decided it last time, mate. Come on.
No they simply are not. So every person who voted for Trump in 2016 is a "silent Republican" whose vote is not changeable?

Simply not true. There was multitude of reasons Trump won in 2016 and everybody becoming a die hard Republican was not one of them. 2018 was a reflection on Trump and it was pretty clear imo. Since then nothing has changed it has pretty obviously gotten even worse.
 
No they simply are not. So every person who voted for Trump in 2016 is a "silent Republican" whose vote is not changeable?

Simply not true. There was multitude of reasons Trump won in 2016 and everybody becoming a die hard Republican was not one of them. 2018 was a reflection on Trump and it was pretty clear imo. Since then nothing has changed it has pretty obviously gotten even worse.
Wot

That's naw what I said at all. Fuck sake. Most Trump voters are the most visible possible. There IS a shy Republican phenomenon though. You can pretend there isn't, but there is.

You're also wrong using the midterms as a barometer here, mate. History makes this quite clear.

Fwiw, I think Trump will lose. But it'll be no landslide.
 

CJRK

The horse fella
That's naw what I said at all. Fuck sake. Most Trump voters are the most visible possible. There IS a shy Republican phenomenon though. You can pretend there isn't, but there is.
What does this mean then? Most Republican voters are not shouting about it from a mountain in the same way most Democratic voters are not shouting about it either. That's simply a reflection of the fact that rightly or wrongly most people are not very politically engaged. Forums like these and the likes of Twitter and Facebook make it seem like conversation is always politically dominated but it's simply not true for society as a whole imo.

You're also wrong using the midterms as a barometer here, mate. History makes this quite clear.
That's simply one indicator. The recent Democratic primaries further indicate strong Biden support in key states. We can both agree surely that the core support for Bernie in 2016 is the same for 2020 so he's not losing votes because of a sudden change in policy. He's losing them because the people who would never vote for Clinton will give that vote to Biden.

Michigan
2016 2020
49.7% 36.34%

Florida
2016 2020
33.3% 22.8%

Pennsylvania
2016 2020
43.5% 18.0%

This is reflective across multiple of these states that Trump must hold before we even begin to look at the ones he lost by a small margin and compare Bernie's vote there across the two primaries which follows the same trend.

I am yet to hear a single argument as to how all of this adds up to anything other than a pretty convincing Biden win come November other than "The people who vote Republican won't show it until the day". Well except as above that simply isn't the case. Now if we delve into the results and implications of 2018 then it paints an even bleak picture for Trump.
 
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What does this mean then? Most Republican voters are not shouting about it from a mountain in the same way most Democratic voters are not shouting about it either. That's simply a reflection of the fact that rightly or wrongly most people are not very politically engaged. Forums like these and the likes of Twitter and Facebook make it seem like conversation is always politically dominated but it's simply not true for society as a whole imo.


That's simply one indicator. The recent Democratic primaries further indicate strong Biden support in key states. We can both agree surely that the core support for Bernie in 2016 is the same for 2020 so he's not losing votes because of a sudden change in policy. He's losing them because the people who would never vote for Clinton will give that vote to Biden.

Michigan
2016 2020
49.7% 36.34%

Florida
2016 2020
33.3% 22.8%

Pennsylvania
2016 2020
43.5% 18.0%

This is reflective across multiple of these states that Trump must hold before we even begin to look at the ones he lost by a small margin and compare Bernie's vote there across the two primaries which follows the same trend.

I am yet to hear a single argument as to how all of this adds up to anything other than a pretty convincing Biden win come November other than "The people who vote Republican won't show it until the day". Well except as above that simply isn't the case. Now if we delve into the results and implications of 2018 then it paints an even bleak picture for Trump.
I honestly can't make sense of that post, mate. Naw being a dick, I may just be being stupid.

Let me restate, there is a shy Republican vote that will turn up at the general election. It didn't turn up at the midterms, which is normal as midterms are usually won by the opposition and don't offer too much insight to the general election.

As I said earlier, Trump can lose a number of the smaller close/swing states and still come out top.

As for "the single argument", I've already said I don't have one (I think/hope Trump loses) other than the infinite ability of stupid people to do stupid things. It's a bad feeling/hunch rather than a cohesive argument, man. Naw really sure what you're struggling with about that, man.
 

CJRK

The horse fella
I honestly can't make sense of that post, mate. Naw being a dick, I may just be being stupid.

Let me restate, there is a shy Republican vote that will turn up at the general election. It didn't turn up at the midterms, which is normal as midterms are usually won by the opposition and don't offer too much insight to the general election.

As I said earlier, Trump can lose a number of the smaller close/swing states and still come out top.

As for "the single argument", I've already said I don't have one (I think/hope Trump loses) other than the infinite ability of stupid people to do stupid things. It's a bad feeling/hunch rather than a cohesive argument, man. Naw really sure what you're struggling with about that, man.
Bernie's drop in performance from 2016 and 2020 in these key states had nothing to do with Bernie himself and everything to do with the Democrats being much more behind Biden than they ever were behind Clinton in these states which basically means Trump is fucked and it's not just a matter of "oh the polls were wrong in 2016".
 

Lunny

Former OTH PL Cup Winner
Staff member
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Bogotazo

Administrator
Staff member
:lol: It's not going to happen though is it? You can't just squat in the Oval Office.
If he stays in defiance of a questionable result, I don't think the Democratic Party is going to organize any kind of meaningful resistance. It will likely take mobs of people fucking up Trump Tower and threatening to storm the White House. If the guy got moved to a bunker over BLM protests I imagine he shits his pants at a mobilization to oust him.


That said, that's likely when all these right-wing militias move in to pull the trigger on igniting a civil war, and it then falls on the military to choose where their loyalties lie.
 

Lunny

Former OTH PL Cup Winner
Staff member
Country Flag
United Kingdom
If he stays in defiance of a questionable result, I don't think the Democratic Party is going to organize any kind of meaningful resistance. It will likely take mobs of people fucking up Trump Tower and threatening to storm the White House. If the guy got moved to a bunker over BLM protests I imagine he shits his pants at a mobilization to oust him.


That said, that's likely when all these right-wing militias move in to pull the trigger on igniting a civil war, and it then falls on the military to choose where their loyalties lie.
:lol: Imagine having a civil war over a reality TV star that you voted as president
 
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